Melbourne AINC #2 Predictions

One week out from the last open qualifiers, Dippa takes a look at some of the teams and how their chances stack up. The competition from the registrations already prove that this qualifier will be tight and worth while watching - as the Last Chance Comp is for invited / wildcard teams only.

The registrations at the moment:

#1) BulletProofNerds
#2) Twisted Fate
#3) Zero Remorse
#4) KING
#5) Redux
#6) xposed
#7) tNa
#8) sFX
#9) Burnt Toast
10) Jackson 5
#11) PROJKT
#12) inaction
#13) MB
#14) dudZ

PROJKT GAMER - jnsie, skills, cadz, smista, apex

Jnsie’s temporary home after being kicked out - twice - from Twisted Fate. The question is how good are cadz, smista and skills? As long as apex and jnsie have the fire burning the others will play better as well. Mix teams should never be discounted, especially with a huge lack of unorganised teams at this qualifier. On a good day with a decent draw PROJKT could be in the fight for an invite. Their best chance is going to be a wildcard though. Who they play in their first two games is critical.
Prediction: Anywhere from 4th-7th/8th, depending on draw and individual performances

inaction - evolution koreykore v-spec redrum_hk x-rey

A much stronger team on paper but evolution isn’t playing with invy and redrum is a long way from his intricate days. In terms of a mix team, it’s not that bad. Their seed should get them in range of qualifying - only KING, TF8, Redux and possibly Xposed have stronger lineups on paper and not necessarily because of aim. A little bit of prac leading into the comp will go a long way for some of the players although the influence of redrum baiting and evolution wandering around makes some maps harder than others. They could finish up qualifying or in the same spot as PROJKT. A bit of luck with the coin toss and a good map draw could see inaction qualifying, as long as they don’t have to play ZR who will be the most organised team at this qualifier. Momentum will be everything for these guys.
Prediction: Anywhere from 3rd-7th/8th, depending on draw, coin tosses, and winning early rounds

Burnt Toast - rumeboy tnyvo escuro nam TBA

Possibly a little better than inaction but that doesn’t mean they’ll do better. They’re only playing for fun, and I doubt that they’re going to care if they lose. That’s different from not caring at all, but if they drop some rounds early then BT could go out early. BT should be able to hold their own aimwise but they’re unlikely to recover if they don’t get the first pick. Again avoiding any team that is organised is critical. Map draw isn’t going to do a whole lot for this team either. If they show up and are playing well they’ll fight for an invite, if they aren’t then its going to be over quickly.
Prediction: Anywhere from 4th-9th/12th, depending on individual condition

SFX - Godless Fortynine subbz mish dextrous bournestar

The last time SFX qualified for a nationals was 2006. Actually that was the only time SFX qualified for a nationals. It was also the only nationals that had 24 teams. Seeing as this one doesn’t, SFX won’t be qualifying. That’s mostly because they’re missing their big star player from back then, Jing. SFX are going to really need momentum because they don’t have a lot going for them otherwise whether they prac or not. They’re all really good guys, but no-one on this team has any real spark that would set them above other teams. I hope they prove me wrong though.
Prediction: Anywhere from 7th-8th/9th-12th, ignoring divine intervention

tNa - carn bailed bish beniz damo

Formerly an up-and-comer team until most of them gave Counter-Strike away. I haven’t played them in ages but they were sharp onliners in their time and they had acceptable returns at iBisQ Leagues as well. For what its worth, there should be a bit of chemistry with the original 5. I spoke to bish:

tNA|bish: We’ve had a couple pracs and played a few pugs were good to go, havent lanned together since 05 but we might still pull off top 3 or whatever it takes to qualify.

If they remember all their strats and they’re not too complicated then tNa have a decent chance. If they can hit a few shots with their strats then they could even make an upset in the second round with a good start. Their natural aim used to be better than most of the teams here; I’m counting on that to mix things up. Don’t expect an invite though.
Prediction: Anywhere from 3rd-5th/6th, depending on how many pistols they win

xposed - serb nadbert winry |2374|2D tba

Really being bumeh, bui, winnii [eck0], danforce and a 5th im unsure of. (Thanks subbz)

So it’s not exactly the xposed that reached its high points with gazR, benoR, steel, 592 and so on. Bumeh has played with most of those players, bui and eck0 have had good results before (nerv at WCG 2007) but otherwise we aren’t looking at the strongest team. They’re not bad, of course. They should be looking at a mid-range seed straight off the bat - about 5th - which will leave them playing TF8 or KING in the second round. I don’t see them winning that game, so how the draw pans out will be critical to their qualifying chances.

There’s nothing particularly spectacular here. They’re experienced enough to do basic strats without practice, but they’ll still run into a brick wall on the big CT maps. For example, T side train could be devastating for this team, especially if the opposition is aiming better. KING, ZR, Redux, TF8 under some circumstances, and even tNa if they make it deep into the bracket could cause trouble for xposed. At the moment, you’re looking at the total adding up to less than the sum of its parts.

Prediction: 5th-6th

KING - nezzA fRAGY Rickeh devour teddyt

Some of the biggest Melbourne onliners from past and present. We’ve got no-smoke Nezza, teddyT, Rickeh (cheat much?), frAGY from the past … ahh this could go on forever. And then there’s devour, who kind of stands out a bit in the way that he doesn’t stand out at all.

KING are pushing for an invite spot. They’ll be fighting directly alongside TF8 for the third spot (if you consider ZR and Redux to be locks). What teams can beat them though? KING would be in the top 3 lineups aimwise in this qualifier, which presents a problem for other teams. ZR’s organisation isn’t going to help them when KING are very familiar with how they play, Redux will pretty much be fighting them on equal terms and TF8 are behind KING in overall skill. Skill is a fickle lover though, and there’s no guarantee she’ll show up to the party when you want her. The amount of quality is pretty much reduced when you consider the aggressiveness and ways to break KING apart. Maps like dust2 won’t help either- KING’s aggressive nature will be very difficult to execute and their defence will be split easily. KING won’t have any problems against most of the teams at this qualifier - their aim will be good enough to close down the options available to other teams - but it’s all dependent on their aim. The key for them qualifying is to make sure they don’t get broken apart by fakes; they should be able to stop any team that wants to outpick them.
Prediction: 3rd-4th, depending on map draw

Twisted Fate - andy dvschoi jimsie jastone peki

No jnsie means no random person baiting which equals happy TF8. Most have resigned TF8 to around the 7th/8th region. The question is: how many extra frags did jnsie get for them when they needed it, and how good are the rest of them to pick up the slack? TF8 will be using peki for the qualifier, which isn’t the best nor the worst choice available. As long as he follows the strats then their potency will increase. TF8’s best chance lies in practice. They don’t have better aimers than any of the other teams fighting for an invite so they will need a lot of help from their flashes and nades. Close range maps like nuke will help, or something that gives them a lot of chance to stack like inferno is good too. TF8 will need to take a lot of pistol rounds in their games and to make sure that they don’t suffer big retakes. Big CT halves are the key for TF8 beating one of the other teams expected to qualify.
Prediction: 3rd-4th, depending on map draw and coin toss

zero Remorse - davestrizl jing coop funbad jaytee

The most practiced and organised team coming into this qualifier is guaranteed an invite. That’s pretty much a lock. They also have jing up their sleeve, who is sharper than most of the players playing at the qualifier. Overall its not the sharpest team - KING or Redux might have the edge - but their practice makes up for any poor decisions they might make and prevents their aim from becoming too big a factor.

Can ZR beat the other challengers? TF8 - definitely. To me, watching TF8 is like looking back at Snatch or mothtrap - but you can never beat the original. KING are sharper but ZR can counteract that by breaking their defense with a good fake or rush. Playing Redux will probably pan out the same way; if they can split up their defense and break into a site quickly then they should be good enough to pick up rounds by simply trading frags from that stage.

Picks are the problem. I have doubts about ZR after the first phase. They aren’t the most experienced players at the qualifier, and they’re not the sharpest either. If their attack fails initially then they lose the advantage. Unexperienced players tend to be less composed and they make poorer decisions as a result. Drawing KING or Redux on a map like Inferno could be difficult if they struggle to make the first frag. On the other side, if they can execute well then something like Inferno pretty much guarantees that they win the round due to the difficulty of retaking.

This qualifier is a litmus test. There are going to be a number of teams not properly organised at the nationals and ZR will get thrown into the group stages with them. If they can deal with the aim problem here then it should set them well for the nationals. It all comes down to how well they can win those 2v2’s. I think KING or Redux have the advantage in that area.

Prediction: 2nd-3rd

Seeing as I won’t predict my own team, here’s beedee with a little cameo.

Redux - rav steel fizz-e dippa TBA

This will be Redux’s first LAN debut together with the two interstate players dippa and steel. Needless to say they will be out to prove and remind everyone (in Melbourne at least) that they are a force to be reckoned with. There are rumours of beast missing the qualifier for personal reasons however judging from their individual results from previous teams, I find it hard to see them miss the invite even with rustyboy as a 5th - and that’s a huge compliment.

To summarize, every player in this lineup comes from different top tier teams in the past and possess the aim and knowledge to win all their games comfortably at this qualifier. Their real test I imagine will be how well they do and whether or not they can make it out of groups during the finals.
(NB. We aren’t using rustyboy as our 5th.)
Prediction: Will place anywhere between 1st-3rd depending on how high on sugar steel will be, and whether or not they use rustyboy as their 5th.

What do you think? Have I got it completely wrong? Maybe there are some players going to go large that didn’t get a mention. Post your comments below and good luck to everyone competing.